Why are there more occurrences of negative returns in late 2025 in my Daily Return history for Mari Invest SavePlus?

Unit Price movement contributes to Daily Return

You may refer here for how Daily Return is calculated.

Since Daily Returns are driven by Unit Price movement, it is essential to understand the factors behind the negative Unit Price movement in late 2025 for the Lion-MariBank SavePlus fund offered via Mari Invest SavePlus. The fund manager, Lion Global Investors (LGI), shares some insights below.

Negative Unit Price movement in 2025

The Lion-MariBank SavePlus fund has enjoyed 16 months (from Apr 2024 to Aug 2025) without any negative Unit Price movement.

Over the period, MAS Bills yields were stable at around 3%, while LionGlobal SGD Money Market Fund (LionGlobal SGD MMF) and LionGlobal SGD Enhanced Liquidity Fund (LionGlobal SGD ELF) contributed via returns from corporate bonds without the associated risk from corporate bond price fluctuations. Stable yields from these underlying asset allocations of the Lion-MariBank SavePlus fund contributed to the fund’s stable returns.

However in 2025, Singapore interest rates declined in line with US interest rates. In Jan 2025, the Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) ranged from 2.5% to 3.1% but fell below 1% by Dec 2025. This led to falling yields from new bonds, fixed deposits, MAS bills and investment grade bonds.

The Lion-MariBank SavePlus fund and other highly liquid investment solutions are not immune to these events. As a result, the fund experienced occasional negative Unit Price movement from Sep 2025 onwards.

Understanding the factors

The Lion-MariBank SavePlus fund invests in high quality short-term government debt (MAS bills), investment-grade bonds and fixed deposits to generate income, where income has been reduced by the declining interest rate environment.

Factor 1: Declining interest rate environment

When interest rates were higher, the larger income acted as a "buffer" that could offset fluctuations in market price movements of instruments such as MAS Bills and SGD bond funds. With declining interest rates, the buffer is now smaller, leading to higher frequency of slightly negative days.

Factor 2: Price volatility due to foreign currency (“FX”) forwards

A portion of the underlying assets are denominated in foreign currencies (like USD), so LGI uses FX forwards to mitigate the risk of currency fluctuations. While the use of FX forwards is common, they may contribute to temporary price volatility of the underlying assets.

Factor 3: Central bank policy divergence

Diverging monetary policies between US and Singapore central banks have heightened the volatility in the interest rate differential, which is the difference between US and Singapore interest rates. Rapid changes in the interest rate differential can impact the value of FX forwards, which can, in turn, lead to fluctuations in the Unit Price of the Lion-MariBank SavePlus fund.

Factor 4: Singapore bonds’ price volatility

LionGlobal Short Duration Bond Fund is one of the underlying funds that the Lion-MariBank SavePlus fund invests in. This fund invests in a diversified investment-grade portfolio of bonds, with exposure to the price risk of Singapore bonds. An increased supply of Singapore bonds led to temporary increases in yields, which has driven down the prices of existing bonds, and this contributed to the recent volatility. Importantly, the credit quality of the bonds is unaffected, and we expect supply and demand to eventually stabilise.

What lies ahead for the Lion-MariBank SavePlus fund

Despite some uncertainty regarding the future leadership of the US central bank (the Fed), the Dec 2025 meeting minutes indicate that they may continue to lower interest rates if inflation remains stable. Locally, Singapore's economy recorded a robust 5.7% growth in Q4 2025. While this growth is expected to slow down, price pressures are easing due to lower energy and import costs, meaning there is less risk of sudden policy changes in Singapore.

In this changing environment, the Lion-MariBank SavePlus fund remains committed to seeking higher returns than the SGD fixed deposit rates while mitigating risk via:

• Keeping investments short-term to help the fund’s value stay stable,
• Maintaining allocation to LionGlobal SGD MMF and LionGlobal SGD ELF (where each fund has above 60% geographical allocation to Singapore) to preserve yields, and
• Prioritising Singapore-based investments over US-based ones, to manage the costs of protecting your money against currency swings.

Based on information provided by Lion Global Investors Limited, as of 2026.